Are We Headed for a Cold War With China?
03/05/2012 4 comentarios
China Is Reacting to Our Weak Economy. To maintain peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region and secure American interests, United States must sustain its leadership and bolster regional confidence in its staying power. The key to those goals is reinvigorating US economy. Historically, the Chinese have taken advantage of perceived American weakness and shifts in global balance of power. In 1974 China seized the Paracel Islands from Saigon just after the United States and the Socialist Republic of Vietnam signed the Paris Peace Treaty, which signaled the U.S. withdrawal from the region. When Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev met one of Deng Xiaoping’s “three obstacles” requirements for better ties and withdrew from Can Ranh Bay, Vietnam, in 1988, China snatched seven of Spratly Islands from Hanoi. Two decades later, as the United States-Philippines base agreement was terminated, China grabbed Mischief Reef from Manila. The Chinese assertive behaviors against its neighbors in recent years in the East China Sea, the South China Sea and the Yellow Sea were in part a consequence of China’s assessment that the global financial crisis signaled the beginning of U.S. decline and a shift in the balance of power in China’s favor. The Obama administration’s “rebalancing” or “pivot” to Asia will help prevent Chinese miscalculation and increase the confidence of U.S. partners in U.S. reliability as the ballast for peace and stability in the region. But failure to follow through with actions and resources would spark uncertainty and lead smaller countries to accommodate Chinese interests in the region. Most important, the United States must revive its economy. China will inevitably overtake the United States as the largest economy in the world in the coming decade or two. The United States must not let Beijing conclude that a relative decline in U.S. power means a weakened United States unable to guarantee regional peace and stability. The Chinese see United States as mired in financial disorder, with an alarming budget deficit, high unemployment, slow economic growth, which, they predict, will lead to America’s demise as the sole global superpower. To avoid Chinese miscalculation and greater United States-China strategic competition, United States needs to restore financial solvency and growth through bipartisan action.