En América Latina se necesitan sistemas financieros inclusivos

Si bien expertos marcan una relación directa entre desarrollo financiero y crecimiento económico, en los últimos años se está analizando la exclusión financiera como una barrera para el desarrollo económico de la región, por lo que existe la “necesidad de construir sistemas financieros inclusivos”, afirma el documento básico de ALIDE: Innovación Financiera para la Inclusión” presentado en la 42° reunión de su Asamblea General, que concluyó ayer en Quito. El documento hace repaso del desempeño que ha tenido la economía latinoamericana en la última década y afirma que si bien la región ha mejorado su gestión macroeconómica y ha reducido sus índices de pobreza, aún hay muchas brechas por cerrar en cuanto a la desigualdad en la distribución de la riqueza y el acceso al financiamiento. ALIDE sostiene que un mayor acceso de la población a servicios financieros permite canalizar ahorro, diversificar modalidades de financiamiento, fondear proyectos de lenta maduración, créditos habitacionales, y sobre todo facilita el surgimiento de nuevos emprendimientos. “Es bajo esta perspectiva que se debe fortalecer la inclusión financiera, en la medida que un incremento en el acceso de los grupos poblaciones de menor ingreso a los servicios financieros contribuya a la disminución de la pobreza y a una mejora en la distribución del ingreso”. Este y otros temas fueron debatidos por líderes financieros de más de 80 instituciones financieras de desarrollo (IFD), regionales y extrarregionales, que se reunieron hasta ayer en Quito, donde también se premiaron las iniciativas financieras de desarrollo más innovadoras de los últimos meses y se distinguió al Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico y Social (BNDES), como IFD más destacada del año. (Fuente: ALIDE – 10/05/2012)

Fuerte caida de exportaciones regionales a EEUU por la crisis

Las exportaciones de los países de ALC con destino a Estados Unidos cayeron alrededor de 250.000 millones de dólares entre 2009 y 2011, debido a la crisis iniciada en Wall Street 2008, precisó un estudio elaborado por SELA. El informe “Relaciones económicas de Estados Unidos con los países de América Latina y el Caribe en época de transición” fue difundido el miércoles en Caracas. El estudio del SELA (organismo regional creado en 1975) se presentó en marco Seminario “VI Cumbre de las Américas: Balance y Perspectivas”, coorganizado con universidades Simón Bolívar, Central y Consejo Venezolano de Relaciones Internacionales (COVRI). “El nivel de importaciones estadounidenses desde la región durante 2009-2011 se ubicó alrededor de 250.000 millones de dólares por debajo de lo que se habría registrado en ausencia de crisis, y si se hubieran sostenido las tasas de crecimiento de años anteriores”, remarca el estudio. Agrega que la economía internacional se recupera lentamente de la crisis y enfrenta los desafíos de mantener de manera constante ese repunte, en un entorno inestable. Según el SELA, recuperación de mediados de 2009 “no ha sido tan rápida ni tan clara como las caídas”. Además, ese proceso se ve afectado “por temores de nueva recesión en Estados Unidos o por la aparición de nuevas crisis, inducidas por inestabilidad económica en Europa o conflictos en Medio Oriente”. Desde comienzos 2012, sostiene SELA, “hay señales contradictorias: las estadísticas económicas producidas por Estados Unidos apuntan hacia un crecimiento sostenido y quizás acelerado, pero las preocupaciones por conmociones exógenas siguen siendo grandes”. “Más que cualquier decisión en materia de políticas que tome Washington, el estado real de la economía estadounidense será el factor determinante de futuros flujos de bienes, servicios, capitales entre EEUU y la región”. En lo relativo al portafolio de inversión extranjera directa estadounidense, se observa que sólo 6,2% del total de esas corrientes se dirigen hacia la región, mientras UE aparece como destino principal, 56%. El documento subraya por último la preocupación con respecto a la cooperación internacional de Estados Unidos, estimada en menos de 2 mil millones de dólares al año para la región. Estados Unidos destinará a ese fin durante el año fiscal 2013 un monto inferior, tanto en términos absolutos (11% menos) como en términos relativos, de 5,3 a 4,9%. (Agencia Télam – 10/05/2012)

In Spain, a Debt Crisis Built on Corporate Borrowing

In a country with one of the highest levels of company debt in the world, few businesses in Spain shoulder as big a burden as Grupo A.C.S., global construction giant whose debt woes have become a mirror image of Spain’s own increasingly severe financial struggle. Saddled with a 9 billion euro ($11.7 billion) debt pile that is twice the size of the company’s shrinking market value, A.C.S. is in the midst of a frantic campaign to sell off assets, pay down debt and further distance itself from a Spanish economy caught in a spiral of austerity, deflation. Spanish government’s harsh budget cuts and their depressive effect on the economy have prompted foreign investors to sell Spanish stocks and bonds in droves. On Tuesday, Spanish stocks plunged 2.8 percent and the government’s 10-year bond yields spiked to 6 percent as Spain moved to bail out its ailing banks, and uncertainty over Greece loomed. But economists now say that one of the greatest threats to Spain could well be the snarl of debt choking off the growth prospects of A.C.S. and other highly indebted Spanish corporations. And they warn that as these companies cut back on investments and shed assets as well as jobs, the result could be a Japan-style lost decade of stagnation. An important metric in the eurozone debt crisis has been government debt as a percentage of the total economic output, and Spain has a relatively low ratio of 70 percent, compared with 165 percent for Greece and 120% for Italy. But according to a recent report by McKinsey on global debt, Spain’s nonfinancial private sector debt is 134 percent of gross domestic product, higher than any major economy in the world with the exception of Ireland, where the figures are skewed by the outsize presence of foreign multinationals. Factoring in bank, household, government obligations, total figure rises to 363% of GDP, trailing only Japan at 512% and Britain at 507%. “The problem in Spain is not government debt, it’s private sector debt,” said Jonathan Tepper of Variant Perception, a London-based research boutique with a specialty in Spain. “A.C.S. perfectly captures this problem.” Under stewardship of its ambitious chairman, ACS, like many other corporations in Spain during the recent boom, gorged on cheap debt, seeking to diversify by buying large equity stakes in companies in Spain and elsewhere. In a bull market, this web of cross-holdings held in special-purpose vehicles and financed by bank loans can sustain a vast corporate appetite. But when the assets backing these debts plunge, banks call in their loans, opposite can occur. “It is a really bad time for these companies,” said Mauro Guillen, an expert on Spanish multinational companies at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. “Government is no longer investing in infrastructure, municipalities are no longer paying their bills, companies are in constant need of refinancing. So they have to unload their positions to raise cash.” With 28 billion euros in revenue, A.C.S, is one of the largest building services companies in the world. Its projects range from building subway stations in Manhattan and managing toll roads in Florida, to collecting waste in France and building wind farms in Brazil (…..)

Link: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/10/business/global/in-spain-grupo-acss-high-debt-reflects-countrys-finances.html

Under Netanyahu, Israel is stronger than ever

While incumbents around the world are struggling to hold on, one is thriving. By bringing rival Kadima party into his ruling coalition, Benjamin Netanyahu has become “king of Israel,” in Aaron David Miller’s phrase. He has an unusual, perhaps unique, opportunity to use his new power to secure Israel’s future. Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition commands the largest parliamentary majority in Israeli history. He faces no plausible rival as prime minister. When pushed on Palestinian issue, Netanyahu has often cited the constraints of his coalition to explain why he had not taken bolder steps toward resolution. Perhaps he liked being constrained: He refused to form a national unity government in 1996 (with Shimon Peres) and refused again in 2009 (with Tzipi Livni). But now he has a broad enough base of support, with many moderates, that could move toward a peace settlement without endangering his hold on power. (source: by Fareed Zakaria – The Washington Post – 10/05/2012)

Look beneath recent war fears, and Israel is in a stronger position than ever. Its per capita gross domestic product rivals Italy’s (at $31,000). The World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index ranks Israel sixth in innovation capacity, just after United States. It is behind only the United States and China in the number of companies listed on Nasdaq. Militarily, Israel is the region’s superpower, with an armed force that could easily defeat any of its neighbors. U.S. aid (Congress recently moved to add $1 billion for Israel’s missile defense program to the president’s budget) enhances its military edge. It also has one of the world’s largest nuclear arsenals, estimated at more than 200 missiles. At home, the wall along West Bank has essentially solved the problem of Palestinian suicide bombing, rendering Israel safer than at any point in its history. While Iran does pose a threat, it has been systematically exaggerated over the past few years. Many serious Israeli leaders, including several senior members of its military and intelligence establishment, have spoken up about this in an unprecedented manner. Tamir Pardo of Israel’s intelligence agency, Mossad, has said that Iran is not an existential threat. Last month, Army Chief Benny Gantz described Iranian regime as rational. Mossad’s Meir Dagan has said that an attack on Iran would be “stupid”. Kadima party head Shaul Mofaz, new vice prime minister and a former army chief, has said that an Israeli attack on Iran would produce a regional war and accelerate Iran’s nuclear program. He argues that “the threat that Israel will become a binational state is far more serious than Iranian nuclear issue.” In his passionate and intelligent book “The Crisis of Zionism,” Peter Beinart observes a distinction between the ethics of weakness and power. If you see yourself as weak, besieged by the world, and as a victim, Beinart argues, you will embrace any policy that allows you to survive, regardless of its impact on others. On the other hand, an ethic of power recognizes that you are strong and must promote your own interests but with some concept of responsibility as well. Worse, Beinart argues, the obsession with victimhood has prevented people in Israel and United States from focusing on the gravest threat to Israel’s existence as a Jewish and democratic state: demography. If there is no progress toward a two-state solution, at some point Israel will not to be able to continue to rule over millions of Palestinians without giving them the right to vote, at which point it will cease to be a Jewish state.

In the past, Netanyahu has fiercely embraced the ethic of survival. For decades he has argued that Israel was in imminent danger of extinction, making comparisons to Nazi threat to Jews in 1938. Long opposed to a Palestinian state, he railed in 1993, when Yitzhak Rabin and Peres signed the Oslo accords, that Peres, then foreign minister, was “worse than [Neville] Chamberlain.” In the book Netanyahu published that year, he argued dismantling Jewish settlements would produce a “Judenrein” West Bank (“free of Jews,” a phrase the Nazis used). When he reissued his book in 2009, those phrases were still in the text. Since then, perhaps recognizing the demographic dangers to Israel, he has said he now supports a two-state solution, but he has done nothing to move toward it. Israel faces real dangers. It sits in a hostile neighborhood, with anti-Semitism rising. Obstacles to Israel-Palestinian peace include weakness of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and radicalism from the terror group Hamas. A politician of Netanyahu’s skill can find ways to navigate this terrain. Larger questions are: Does he see an opportunity to become a truly great figure in Israeli history? Can he use his power for a purpose other than his own survival? 

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