Brasil e Hispanoamérica

Hermanados dentro de la noción de América Latina y compartiendo un mismo espacio geográfico regional, Brasil e Hispanoamérica remontan parentesco al otro lado del Atlántico y tiempos antiguos. España y Portugal no solo conviven dentro de una misma península sino que comparten patronímico de iberos. Más aún en tiempos del Imperio Romano ambos integraban una misma provincia: Hispania (Lusitania formaba parte de Hispania). No en balde, como lo ha señalado el connotado intelectual brasileño Gilberto Freyre, Portugal tiene el mismo derecho a sentirse parte del mundo hispano que Castilla, Extremadura o Andalucía, distinguiéndose de ellas por el mero hecho de una existencia estatal independiente. (Fuente: Alfredo Toro Hardy – El Universal, Venezuela – 25/08/2011) 

Una existencia independiente labrada a partir de dos reyes portugueses de los siglos X y XI: Alfonso Henriques y Dinis. Por extensión natural, y era la tesis de Freyre, Brasil es también una nación hispana. Poco faltó para que Portugal fuese uno más de los distintos reinos peninsulares que fueron amalgamándose durante la Edad Media para dar forma al actual territorio español, de hecho, durante sesenta años ambos estuvieron bajo la corona común de los Habsburgo. Portugueses y españoles compartieron por igual la presencia e influencia de celtas, griegos, fenicios, cartagineses, romanos, germanos, moros y judíos. Separados por el idioma, la suya es una separación infinitamente menor que la existente entre la lengua vasca y la castellana que integran dentro de un mismo Estado. Más aún, el portugués y el gallego resultan virtualmente un mismo idioma. Españoles y portugueses se aproximaron al Nuevo Mundo a partir de un acto de concertación. Una vez allí habrían de atravesar por un mismo proceso de mezcla racial y transculturación con las poblaciones indígenas, seguido del común influjo del elemento africano. En definitiva, en ambos casos se produciría la conformación de un nuevo género humano de rasgos singulares y claramente diferenciados del de otras latitudes.

Brasil e Hispanoamérica se asemejan hasta los tuétanos. No obstante, sus respectivos procesos históricos han sido disímiles: en Brasil se ha evidenciado en lo esencial una secuencia moderada, desprovista de gestas o sobresaltos. Como bien señalaba Leopoldo Zea, el pueblo brasileño se acostó una noche siendo colonia para despertarse siendo un Imperio independiente y, algún tiempo después, despertarse siendo República. Entre tanto, la historia de Hispanoamérica ha sido la de la sangre que corre a raudales y la del recomenzar permanente. Ello responde al carácter más pragmático y conciliador heredado de los portugueses y aquellos comparten con los gallegos. En este sentido sí pareciera evidenciarse una diferencia con los excesos tan propios de España y que los hispanoamericanos llevan en su DNA. Pero, en definitiva, así como en España encontramos varios países por el precio de uno solo, en Hispanoamérica encontramos naciones que tienen más en común con Brasil que entre ellas mismas. A todo efecto práctico, entonces, Brasil e Hispanoamérica somos una misma cosa.

Inside the first ever US-Japan-India trilateral meeting

While Washington grappled with the consequences of Kim Jong Il’s death, United States, Japan, and India held the first meeting of what is shaping up to be a robust trilateral dialogue, but all sides have been quick to say that it’s not aimed at isolating China. The four-hour meeting was held at the State Department on Dec.19, and the US delegation was led by Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell and Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asian Affairs Bob Blake. Other US officials in attendance included State Department Policy Planning Director Jake Sullivan, Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asia and Pacific Affairs Peter Lavoy, and NSC Senior Director for Strategic Planning Derek Chollet. (source: Josh Rogin – Foreign Policy – 23/12/2011)

The Japanese contingent was led by Koji Tsuruoka, deputy vice minister for foreign policy, who was visiting Washington with Foreign Minister Koichiro Gemba. The Indians flew in two officials, Joint Secretary for the Americas Jawed Ashraf and Joint Secretary for East Asia Gautam Bambawale. Two State Department officials described the meeting for The Cable. “What I really loved about it was that it just seemed like a very natural conversation among friends,” one of the officials said. “The amazing thing about our governments is that we really have shared values. That’s the foundation of it all. That’s the glue that binds us together.” The officials defined those shared values as democracy, human rights, rule of law, transparency, open markets, freedom of navigation, and an interest in international development work. “There wasn’t a moment of dissonance in the whole thing,” the official said. “The challenge now is to figure out what specifically we can focus on.”

This was first trilateral meeting between the three countries; main objective of which was to set the foundation for future talks, discuss what issues would be on the agenda going forward, and set the goal of meeting again in Tokyo next year. Topics that were discussed inside the meeting included Afghanistan, where Japan and India are large donors, the recent East Asia Summit, Central Asia, Burma. “We talked about how we can work together within these Asian organizations to advance our shared values…and what can do to help improve the workings of all these various fora,” the State Department official said. “We agreed that we need to focus our collective efforts in Afghanistan to make sure all the values we share in Afghanistan are upheld and observed.” U.S.-Japan-India trilateral dialogue is just the latest of the “mini-laterals” that the United States has undertaken recently. These groupings, which are smaller than often cumbersome multilateral groups, are becoming a preferred way for United States to build consensus around policies with friends and allies. There is another trilateral strategic dialogue between the United States, Japan, and Australia that has been ongoing for five years, and now has half a dozen working groups. United States and India have had a bilateral dialogue about East Asia for over two years now, led by Campbell and Blake. That dialogue has held four official meetings. The State Department official said the United States is interested in setting up some “mini-lateral” structures that include China. U.S. policymakers also want to start a U.S.-India-China trilateral dialogue, the official said, but Chinese won’t sign on. “Our Indian friends are happy to do it, we’re willing to do it, but our Chinese friends are a little wary,” the official said. The Japanese have also put forth the idea of a U.S.-Japan-China trilateral dialogue. The State Department wants to be clear that this week’s meetings were not about China. In fact, they said that the rise of China and how to deal with it wasn’t discussed at the Dec. 19 trilateral meetings. “We did talk about China, but it was in the context of other things,” the official said. “We were actually looking for things we could do jointly with China.” Experts said that even if the trilateral dialogue wasn’t about China, the fact that all three countries are cooperating in the effort to deal with China’s rise looms over the discussions. “The growing cooperation with India and Japan is driven by China’s rise, there’s no doubt about that. That doesn’t mean it’s directly aimed at China,” said Patrick Cronin, senior director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security. “They are all trying to respond to China’s rise but not antagonizing China. From China’s perspective, any cooperation is encirclement.” The initial Chinese reaction to the meeting was cautious.

“US, Japan and India are countries with great influence in Asia-Pacific region. We hope the trilateral meeting will be conducive to regional peace and stability,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Weimin told reporters. Countries like India are interested in deepening their ties with China as well as United States, but joining US-brokered diplomatic architectures allows India to approach its engagement with China from a position of greater strength, said Cronin. He also said that the effort was part of the U.S. goal of increased burden sharing with India, to offset the financial cost of maintaining the U.S. presence in East Asia. “The U.S. is not looking to spend a fortune, it’s looking to be a facilitator,” he said. “It brings India into East Asia and Japan into the Indian Ocean and it does that at a very low cost to the United States.” State Department officials acknowledged that part of the driving force behind encouraging India to take on more responsibility was to shift some of the financial responsibility to countries whose economies are on the rise. “The Indian government, for the first time in a long time, has money. It’s a country that can greatly complement U.S. efforts in the region….This theme of them being a net provider of security takes on more significance when all of a sudden they finally have resources to expand their role,” the official said. “The whole world has been a free-rider on the United States for so long, if the Indians can help with that in an era when we face budgetary constraints, the more the better,” the official said. “The U.S. has had the luxury in the past of going it alone, but it certainly makes sense to do it with your friends.” 

América Latina 2012 (4): la integración regional en 2012

América latina vivirá un año 2012 en el que la integración volverá a estar en primera línea ya que la CELAC se pone en marcha en Santiago de Chile, tras su fundación en la Cumbre de Caracas en 2011. Además, la OEA buscará revitalizarse en la que se perfila como una difícil cita en Cochabamba debido a la tensión entre Bolivia y Chile. La integración es la gran asignatura pendiente de América latina, que en 2011 vio nacer un nuevo foro que aspiraba a ser una OEA sin Estados Unidos, pero que finalmente ha quedado por debajo de esa pretensión. Se trata de la Comunidad de Estados Latinoamericanos y Caribeños (CELAC) que celebrará su segunda cumbre en Santiago de Chile, pues el Presidente chileno ha asumido la presidencia pro tempore del organismo. Las próximas cumbres tendrán lugar en Cuba 2013 y Costa Rica 2014. (Fuente: Infolatam – 26/12/2011)

Piñera defiende para CELAC una integración no solo política sino económica: “(podremos) integrarnos en términos de inversiones, integrarnos físicamente, en el campo de la energía. Espero que este Celac recupere el tiempo perdido en materia de integración y podamos transformar a nuestros pueblos de América en pueblos unidos, que enfrentamos juntos el futuro”. Además, la OEA celebrará su próxima asamblea general del 3 al 5 de junio en Cochabamba, Bolivia. La última vez que Bolivia fue sede de una Asamblea General de dicho organismo fue en 1979, en la ciudad de La Paz. Todo apunta, Bolivia planteará de forma contundente su histórica reivindicación de tener una salida al mar en el foro de Cochabamba. El Canciller boliviano David Choquehuanca ha adelantado que “2012 es un año importante para los indígenas así como Cochabamba tiene su misterio y ese misterio viene cargado de buenas energías y todos los participantes de este evento vamos a cargarnos de esa energía renovadora”. Perú asumirá en 2012 la presidencia pro témpore de la Unión de Naciones Suramericanas (Unasur) y organizará en Lima una cumbre con los gobernantes del bloque. La secretaria general de Unasur, María Emma Mejía, ha encargado para esta cita al Consejo Sudamericano de Desarrollo Social la tarea de estructurar y coordinar el plan de acción y la agenda de acciones sociales, “para su evaluación y posible adopción en la Reunión Ordinaria del Consejo de Jefes de Estado y Gobierno de 2012, que se realizará en Perú….Renovamos así nuestra plena confianza en la capacidad creadora de la Unasur para afrontar con éxito los retos presentes, en la certeza que juntos lograremos forjar un futuro de justicia social, equidad y bienestar para nuestros pueblos”. Los países unidos en el ALBA todavía no tienen fecha fija para su reunión de 2012 aunque todo indica que se llevará a cabo en breve. “Estuve hablando con Evo Morales y esperamos que se ajusten las agendas para hacer la cumbre de la Alternativa Bolivariana para los pueblos de América (Alba) en enero”, así lo anunció el presidente Hugo Chávez. En 2012 está previsto que tenga lugar la Cumbre Antidrogas convocada por el Perú a efectos de coordinar y elaborar políticas conjuntas frente al narcotráfico, de acuerdo a la Comisión Nacional de Desarrollo y Vida sin Drogas (Devida). Asimismo, la UE ha confirmado su participación. Además, tendrá lugar la XIV Cumbre del Mecanismo de Tuxtla en Nicaragua, foro que reúne a México, Colombia y a los países centroamericanos.

2012, será una año muy importante para la integración financiera y comercial. Colombia, Chile y Perú comenzarán a operar con un mercado unificado de divisas a través de la plataforma MILA a partir de mayo de 2012. Esta unificación facilitará las transacciones de divisas entre intermediarios e inversores de los tres países andinos a través del Mercado Latinoamericano Integrado (MILA), que actualmente está operando acciones pero con bajos volúmenes. La Bolsa Mexicana de Valores firmó un acuerdo de intención para unirse, una integración con la que se busca establecer la segunda bolsa más grande de la región por capitalización de mercado, después de la de Brasil. El 4 de junio de 2012, los países que integran la Alianza del Pacífico, Chile, Perú, Colombia y México, se juntarán en Santiago de Chile para firmar un plazo para la reducción gradual de tarifas aduaneras de bienes y servicios, con vistas a su eliminación total en 2020 o 2025. Los presidentes celebrarán 3 “cumbres virtuales” cada 2 meses, a lo largo de 2012, para acelerar las negociaciones.

Link: http://www.infolatam.com/2011/12/28/america-latina-2012-4-la-integracion-regional-en-2012/

IRAN: U.S. Net Exports of Petroleum Products

One big story of 2011 was United States switched from being a net importer to net exporter of petroleum products. Here are the details behind that development. The graph below plots the difference between U.S. exports and imports of petroleum products. On average in 2008, we had been importing about 1.8 million barrels per day more than we exported. So far in the second half of 2011, the difference has swung to an average positive net export balance of 0.4 million barrels per day. The exports are coming in the form of diesel and gasoline that is being sold all over the world, with the top 10 buyers in terms of growth of demand for U.S. products being Mexico, Netherlands, Chile, Canada, Spain, Brazil, Guatemala, Turkey, Argentina, France. The first thing to understand about this number is that it refers only to net exports of refined petroleum products, calculated for example by subtracting the amount of gasoline that U.S. imports from the amount of gasoline that we export. These imports or exports of refined products are far smaller in magnitude than imports of crude oil, which is the raw material from which refined products are made. The small positive net export balance on petroleum products is still completely dwarfed by the huge negative balance on crude petroleum. Nevertheless, something real is happening here.  What accounts for the new-found U.S. competitiveness?  I think a key factor is that abundant  new supplies of crude oil from Canada and North Dakota are now coming  into central United States. Between 1987 and 2008, West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark light, sweet crude oil for sale in Cushing, Oklahoma, sold for $1.50/barrel more than Brent, North Sea counterpart. That differential vanished in 2009-2010, and so far in 2011, WTI has sold at an average price that astonishingly is almost $17/barrel cheaper than Brent. A price differential persists because the US lacks adequate infrastructure to transport the new crude all the way to refineries on the US coasts. However, petroleum products move in different pipelines (…..) Link: http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2011/12/u-s-net-exports-of-petroleum-products/

La Era de los Límites

A principios de los años 90, el entonces líder de los socialdemócratas alemanes, Rudolf Scharping, visitaba a Ulrich Beck en su casa junto al lago Starnberg, al pie de los Alpes bávaros. El tema de conversación era la sociedad del riesgo y los cambios que la izquierda debía acometer para entender las nuevas realidades y gobernarlas. Charlaban en el jardín y Scharping no conseguía encender un cigarro porque era incapaz de saber de dónde venía el viento y protegerse de él. Beck me relataba unos años después la escena, que le parecía una imagen elocuente del desconcierto que se ha apoderado del sistema político en medio de la tormenta. Simbolizaba muy bien esa intemperie en que se ha convertido nuestro mundo imprevisible, inestable y contagioso. Fenómenos de tipo meteorológico, como vientos, desbaratan cualquier protección. La política parece cada vez más un subapartado de la climatología o de la oceanografía; elecciones se ganan o se pierden en función de unos movimientos tan poco dirigibles como vendavales o mareas. Las dificultades de Scharping reflejan la actual volatilidad de las instituciones políticas, lo que no es tanto un problema práctico de liderazgo político como incapacidad de saber de dónde viene el viento, es decir, de comprensión. ¿De qué modo podríamos sintetizar el carácter general de esta nueva época, lo que tiene de inédito y requiere ser comprendido para actuar en ella? Entramos en un periodo caracterizado por una presencia creciente de más límites para la acción de gobierno de lo que estábamos acostumbrados, lo que nos obliga a reinventar la función de gobierno. No me refiero a las limitaciones de crecimiento o presupuestarias, que las hay, pero son consecuencia de una constricción general. La política siempre lo ha tenido difícil, pero en otros momentos había al menos un conocimiento asegurado, un espacio limitado, una legitimidad reconocida y una soberanía respetada que bastaban para sortear las dificultades de gobernar. Actualmente, la política está asediada por constricciones imprevistas que proceden del desajuste entre unas realidades que han desbordado los márgenes estatales y se articulan ahora en contextos globales, mientras que todavía no disponemos de instrumentos para gobernar esos sistemas, al tiempo que se ha puesto de manifiesto su limitada capacidad de autorregulación. Estas constricciones a las que me refiero podrían agruparse en dos categorías: límites cognoscitivos y límites de autoridad, es decir, se refieren al conocimiento como recurso de gobierno y límites que tienen que ver con el recurso que entendemos como poder (…..)

Link: http://www.elpais.com/articulo/opinion/era/limites/elpepuopi/20111229elpepiopi_4/Tes

Good Times Down Latin America’s Way

For Latin America, 2011 was, in Frank Sinatra’s terms, a very good year and 2012 doesn’t look like being bad either. For a region not always accustomed to things going well, this is a somewhat strange state of affairs. Three elections were held in Latin America in 2011. Two, Argentina and Peru, went well; other, in Nicaragua, was marred by egregious fraud and heavy-handed government intervention in favor of the incumbent. Still, two out of three is not bad in a region where, previously, if elections were held at all, disputes about the outcomes were the norm. (source: Jorge G. Castañeda – Project Syndicate – 27/12/2011)

In economic terms, high commodity prices fueled strong growth in South America in 2011, and the modest US recovery benefited nearby countries. In Chile, Peru, Argentina, Uruguay, Bolivia, and, to a lesser extent, Brazil and Colombia, voracious Chinese and Indian demand for raw materials and food boosted foreign reserves, enabled heavy government spending, and sustained high levels of imports. All this led to average growth rates well in excess of 4%. But it also led to new doubts about wisdom of reliance on commodity exports. Chilean economist and politician Carlos Ominami, in his tell-all memoir Secretos de la Concertación, wondered what would happen if China’s economy slowed or its real-estate bubble burst. By the end of the year, this seemed to be happening: commodity prices and growth rates were dropping, and 2012, while still promising strong economic performance, will not match this year’s success. Sustained lower prices may bring chickens home to roost.

The outliers were Venezuela, despite high oil prices, and Caribbean Basin: Mexico, Central America, and the islands. These countries export manufactured goods to the US, on which they also rely for tourism and remittances; they lack either the geography or the geology to become great commodity exporters (or, like Mexico, they export all of their oil to the US). But even the outliers enjoyed decent growth this year. If the US avoids a new slowdown, they may do better than South America in 2012. All told, with exception of 2009, the entire region will have experienced a full decade of uninterrupted growth, something not witnessed since the 1970’s. The boom fueled expansion of Latin America’s middle classes. Between 1950 and 1980, most Latin American countries’ middle classes comprised between one-quarter and one-third of the population. Then came the debt crisis of the 1980’s, the extreme structural reforms and financial collapses of the 1990’s, and a new global downturn in 2001. Such traumatic events plunged these countries into the so-called “middle-income trap”: unable to grow nor to continue broadening their middle classes. But, by the second half of the 2000’s, everything changed: prolonged macroeconomic stability, competent center-left or center-right governments, sensible social policies, global economic growth allowed countries like Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Uruguay, and even Argentina to take the next giant step. By 2008 or so, around 55% of these countries’ populations belonged to middle class, by whatever definition one used. Access to credit, more jobs, remittances, the commodity boom, and conditional cash transfers enabled millions to purchase a home, a car, and a better life. This was not a middle class modeled on North Atlantic precedents, and its members’ status is precarious and reversible; moreover, their standard of living is well below that of their counterparts in wealthier countries. But a middle class it is. These middle-income sectors make up an even larger part of the electorate, since their turnout rates are higher than those of the poor. Political candidates must engage them, occasionally pander to them, and tailor their message to them, all of which steers leaders and parties toward moderate positions. There are no guarantees that this will endure, but it is one of the region’s most impressive achievements in recent years.

Latin America will witness two important elections in 2012, in Venezuela and Mexico, and one non-election, in Cuba. President Hugo Chávez’s opponents will unite behind a single candidate for October’s presidential election. But everything depends on Chávez’s health, which, like that of Fidel Castro in Cuba a closely guarded state secret. Will Chávez’s cancer allow him to run (he is as formidable a campaigner as he is a terrible economic manager), win, and govern until 2030? Will he be a stand-in for his more radical brother (and designated successor), Adán? Or will he be too ill to participate? In that case, and most importantly, would he, Adán, and the entire “Bolivarian” elite accept defeat at the polls? In Cuba, there will be no elections, but matters may come to a head next year. Raúl Castro’s economic reforms have either not been implemented, or are not delivering expected results; the island continues to depend on Venezuelan subsidies, remittances from Miami, and European tourists. Cuba’s octogenarian ruling brothers cannot last forever. Something may have to give on the island, especially if their Venezuelan benefactor is no longer in power. Then there is Mexico, which will hold only its fourth democratic election in its history in a context of rampant organized crime, appalling violence, and rising skepticism about President Felipe Calderón’s war on drugs. With three contending parties, a terrible electoral law, no run-off, and considerable frustration with 12 years of center-right, often ineffective governments, the outcome is highly uncertain. That said, Mexico’s political institutions have survived hard times, middle class rejects extremism, and the US is close by. One would prefer to see Mexico’s presidential candidates offer platforms with ideas and proposals that respond to the challenges facing the country, but this substance deficit occurs everywhere now, almost all the time. For a region has suffered so long from frustration and despair over its failures, these are among best of times. Latin America should count its blessings, remember that nothing lasts forever. 

El Sur y la Unión Europea

Dos buenas noticias para el desarrollo del sector exportador ecuatoriano. El Gobierno nacional ha anunciado públicamente su disposición de continuar el proceso de negociación comercial con la Unión Europea (UE), especificando que es una orden directa del presidente de la República, que se llegue a un acuerdo. La UE es un mercado consolidado para nuestro país y eliminará las preferencias de aranceles para Ecuador a partir de 2013, lo que haría que, sin un acuerdo comercial, nuestras empresas tengan que competir en total desventaja con empresas de Colombia, Perú o Chile, que disponen de sendos acuerdos. La segunda noticia, esta ya enmarcada como una estrategia de desarrollo de mercados externos, la reciente solicitud de nuestro Gobierno para que se incluya a Ecuador dentro del grupo de MERCOSUR. De aceptarse esta iniciativa, nuestras exportaciones podrán beneficiarse de facilidades para el acceso a un mercado como el del Brasil, que, por dar algunas cifras, importa $230.000 millones anuales, que recibe inversión externa por más de $80.000 millones anuales y mantiene una revaluación importante de su moneda. Uno de los grandes problemas de la administración gubernamental actual ha sido el fracaso en implementar una política comercial externa adecuada, situación que debe ser urgentemente revertida ya que los resultados están a la vista con tres años consecutivos de un fuerte déficit comercial y un panorama desalentador en cuanto a beneficios arancelarios de nuestros principales mercados a corto plazo y carencia de inversión. Una vez que el Ecuador se pueda presentar como beneficiario de los mercados a largo plazo y sin aranceles en la Unión Europea, Estados Unidos o Brasil, bajo una política de crecimiento apoyada por el Gobierno, seguramente las expectativas de inversión e incremento de exportaciones se transformarán en un determinante motor de desarrollo. (Fuente: Eduardo Cadena – Diario Hoy, Ecuador – 28/12/2011)

Palestine, a history rich and deep

The issue of Palestinian identity – national history has become a source of controversy, with many Americans making deeply disturbing and alarming statements. As the representative of my people to the United States, I would like to tell you what Palestinians, as a people, are all about. (By Maen Rashid Areikat – Palestine Liberation Organization’s Chief Representative to the United States -Washington Post – 28/12/2011)

We go far back, further than those doubting our existence can remember. Jericho, my home town, goes as far back as 10.000 B.C., making it the oldest continuously inhabited city in the world. We Palestinians also happen to live in a place that many consider important, at the crossroads of three continents and containing a site of holy reverence for more than half the world’s population. It has been a mixed blessing: Palestine managed to draw the good and the bad from what the world has had to offer. We lived under the rule of a plethora of empires: the Canaanites, Egyptians, Philistines, Israelites, Persians, Greeks, Romans, Crusaders, Mongols, Ottomans and, finally, the British. This has made our region rich in history, culture and heritage. Indeed, if our olive trees could speak, some are centuries old, they would have a lot to say.

This makes us very proud and appreciative of our special place in this world. That is why we are so attached to our land and to our identity. I can’t think of a place that is quite like it. Yes, it is tumultuous, incomprehensible and, at times, very dangerous, but for us it is home. Centuries of rule by an eclectic assortment have taught us that empires come and go but legacies and values remain. We proudly carry those values today. Family is sacred, education is indispensable, and religious tolerance is innate. The fact that we outlived these empires is a testament to our resilience and strength. Yes, as presidential candidate Newt Gingrich said recently, we are also Arabs, the Arabs of the Holy Land. Infused with a mix of attributes from the civilizations that passed by, we are Arabs with black, brown and white skin, dark- and light-colored eyes, and the whole gamut of hair types. Like Americans, we are a hybrid of peoples defined by one overarching identity. Many in the United States forget that Palestinians are Muslims and Christians. They ignore the fact Palestinian Christians are the descendants of Jesus and guardians of the cradle of Christianity. Our recent history became intertwined with the plight of European Jewry seeking an end to centuries of persecution brought upon them by the West. Before World War II, Palestinians and Jews living in Palestine enjoyed times of great harmony. My grandfather shared a bakery shop with a Jewish partner, Aaron, in Jerusalem’s Bak’a Tahta neighborhood. My mother told me stories of the period of peace and tranquillity they enjoyed with Jews during this time. That period ended in 1948, however, and a conflict began. The result was our subjugation to the rule of others and more than half of our people being dispossessed. It was a traumatic experience. It triggered our characteristic defense mechanism, which has stood the test of time, stout perseverance and a faith in the manifest destiny of those who uphold their values in the face of oppression.

We developed our political representation, engaged the diplomatic arena and produced a pragmatic national platform that addressed our legitimate demands as well as concerns of all parties to the conflict. The two-state solution was this national platform. We agreed to confine our right to self-determination and statehood on only 22% of what used to be our historic homeland, and we did so for the sake of peace and with a sober realization that seeking “absolute justice” is a fool’s errand. We also did not wait for the removal of all the shackles to our freedom before setting out for our goal. With our can-do spirit, we built institutions of the state in preparation for the long-awaited day when we will enjoy the freedoms other nations of the world enjoy. We, the only remaining people under military occupation in the world, are ready and waiting for our moment to stand up and be counted. We are Palestinians, whose roots are so deep in our land. We are an old, rich and hopeful people whose emancipation is incomplete. People with a state recognized by 129 countries yet not completely free. A state interrupted. That’s what we’re about.

German Growth: Defying the Euro Crisis

Ever since she became the managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last July, Christine Lagarde, 55, has been lamenting the state of the world economy. Frenchwoman recently said that the outlook for the global economy was “quite gloomy” and that if the international community failed to act decisively to halt the downward trend it could lead to a great depression such as the one in the early 1930s. “There is no economy in the world will be immune to the crisis” she said. That is true. Nevertheless, there are countries that are doing better than others despite all the current global difficulties, and this includes Germany, the core of the ailing eurozone, which Lagarde has pointed to as cause of the current problems. Most leading indicators and economic statistics in Germany point toward an improvement for the coming year. Wages and salaries are expected to rise in 2012, as is the number of jobs. Exports are predicted to continue to grow along with domestic demand. There’s a growing sense of optimism among German companies and consumers. The Ifo index, which measures German business sentiment, has been rising again for the past two months and the GfK consumer confidence index also rose in December. It looks as if Germans are ignoring all the dire predictions. Over the past year, the German economy has already shown itself to be astonishingly resilient amid the global economic turmoil sparked by the euro crisis, the sluggish recovery in America and a weakening of economic growth in China. Germany’s gross domestic product (GDP) rose this year by approximately 3%, much more than in neighboring countries and in the US and, more importantly, far more than in crisis-stricken peripheral countries of the eurozone. In fact it’s been a record-breaking year for the German economy. This year, German companies exported goods worth over €1 trillion ($1.3 trillion), the highest figure ever. The number of people in work has also risen to 41.6 million, more than ever before. Germany’s economic success does not make the country more popular among its neighbors, though. After all, this is the same country that has been blocking proposals to use the European Central Bank to provide more generous financing for embattled eurozone countries. Some European countries appear to be secretly hoping that Germany, Europe’s economic paragon, will also feel the brunt of the crisis. In effect, the question is how long the export-driven German economy can elude the downward economic spiral that has affected many regions of the world. Economy is shifting down a gear around the globe, not just in the US and China, but in debt-ridden eurozone members, which are the main customers for German companies. Austerity programs in these countries are curbing growth (…..)

Link: http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,805554,00.html

Lição de pragmatismo da Ásia

China, Japão e Coreia do Sul, um quinto produto bruto mundial, em breve poderão compor mais uma poderosa área de livre comércio, segundo anunciou no fim de semana o primeiro-ministro japonês, Yoshihiko Noda. Os governos da China e Japão, a segunda e a terceira maiores economias do planeta, decidiram usar as próprias moedas para o comércio bilateral, dispensando o dólar quando julgarem conveniente, e também combinaram iniciar negociações para um acordo de livre comércio. O governo coreano já havia iniciado entendimentos com o chinês há algum tempo e será chamado para um acerto a três. Só o intercâmbio China-Japão alcançou no ano passado US$ 339,3 bilhões, segundo informação oficial japonesa. Cinco dias antes, os presidentes do Mercosul, mantendo sua tradição minimalista em matéria de pactos comerciais, haviam assinado um acordo de livre comércio com a Palestina. (Fonte: O Estado de S.Paulo – 27/12/2011)

O uso das moedas nacionais deverá simplificar o comércio entre China e Japão e cortar os custos de operações cambiais. Até agora, 60% transações bilaterais envolvem operações com dólares. Nas discussões do fim de semana o governo japonês comprometeu-se também a comprar títulos públicos da China, por enquanto, em pequena quantidade. Os dois países são os maiores detentores reservas estrangeiras, especialmente americanas, e devem manter essa posição. Há pelo menos três fortes motivos para isso: o dólar permanece como a referência principal para o comércio, a moeda chinesa não é livremente conversível e, além do mais, nenhum governo tem interesse em agravar a crise nos Estados Unidos, ainda a maior potência e o mercado mais importante do mundo. A negociação de um acordo de livre comércio será um passo a mais na integração, já muito forte, das economias chinesa, japonesa e coreana. A iniciativa seguinte poderá ser a vinculação dos três países à Asean, a área de livre comércio formada por dez países dinâmicos do sudeste asiático, incluídos Cingapura, Tailândia e Indonésia, com PIB conjunto de US$ 1,3 trilhão em 2010. Um acordo poderá levar ainda um bom tempo, mas ensaios de aproximação ocorrem desde 1997 e deram origem à sigla APT (Asean Plus Three). Também estão na agenda há vários anos acordos entre países da Asean e membros da Apec, o bloco de Cooperação Econômica da Ásia e do Pacífico. Participam desse grupo, além de países da Ásia e da Oceania, Canadá, Estados Unidos, México, Peru e Chile, todos com importantes interesses comerciais no Extremo Oriente. Há pouco mais de um mês, em 21 de novembro , os governos de Estados Unidos, Chile, Peru, Cingapura, Malásia, Austrália, Nova Zelândia e Brunei divulgaram o esboço de uma Parceria Transpacífico, destinada a promover o comércio e diversas formas de cooperação econômica, passos iniciais para compromissos mais estreitos.

Quatro latino-americanos, Chile, Peru, Colômbia e México, prometem oficializar dentro de uns seis meses a Aliança do Pacífico, um novo esforço de cooperação com objetivos essencialmente comerciais. Se esse bloco for constituído, será mais reforço para a ligação comercial entre Estados Unidos e um grupo importante de países latino-americanos. Chile e Colômbia já têm acordos de livre comércio com os Estados Unidos. México é membro do Nafta, formado pelos três países da América do Norte. O governo americano também já firmou um acordo comercial com as autoridades da Coreia, criando mais uma ponte com o poderoso mercado do Extremo Oriente. Nos últimos dez anos, a diplomacia econômica brasileira dividiu suas fichas entre a Rodada Doha e parcerias com países em desenvolvimento a partir do Mercosul. Enquanto a Rodada Doha derrapava, até o fracasso final oficializado há cerca de duas semanas numa conferência em Genebra, outros governos cuidaram de buscar bons acordos bilaterais e regionais. O resultado foi uma ampla trama de acordos já concluídos ou ainda em negociação. O Brasil e o Mercosul ficaram fora desse movimento. É o preço do infantilismo ideológico.